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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

But the latest race is profoundly different. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and recent strugglers improving in unison. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still